China’s Rising Dominance in Africa’s Nuclear Energy Market: Implications and Opportunities for India

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global energy markets, forcing countries to reconsider their energy portfolios. In Africa, the urgency to secure clean, stable, and long-term energy sources has led to a renewed interest in nuclear power. With a market projected to be worth $105 billion by 2035, Africa is emerging as the next big frontier in global nuclear energy. Among the international contenders, China is rapidly expanding its footprint, outpacing traditional players like France, Russia, and the USA.

India, meanwhile, faces a strategic dilemma: how to prevent Chinese dominance in Africa’s clean energy infrastructure while simultaneously deepening its own nuclear energy and geopolitical engagement.

Table of Contents

1. Africa’s Nuclear Energy Landscape

2. China’s Strategic Involvement in Africa

3. Why China Has an Edge

4. Geopolitical Shifts: Decline of Other Global Players

5. India’s Current Position and Challenges

6. Strategic Way Forward for India

7. Conclusion

1. Africa’s Nuclear Energy Landscape:

• Current Operational Plant: Only one nuclear power plant exists in Africa—Koeberg in South Africa, developed by a French consortium.

• Future Ambitions: Africa aims to generate 15,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2035, with countries like Nigeria, Uganda, and Kenya leading the transition.

• Market Potential: The nuclear energy market in Africa is valued at an estimated $105 billion, drawing interest from China, France, the USA, Russia, and South Korea.

2. China’s Strategic Involvement in Africa

Since 2012, China has pursued a multi-pronged approach to nuclear diplomacy in Africa:

Key Initiatives:

• Sponsored scholarships and training programs through the IAEA framework.

• Developed over 50 operational nuclear reactors domestically, giving it considerable export capacity.

Leading Institutions:

• China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)

• China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)

Major Agreements:

• Nigeria (2024): Signed MoU for full nuclear cycle development.

• Uganda (2024): MoU to construct a 2 GW nuclear plant, with 1 GW operational by 2031.

• Kenya (2030): Exploring nuclear power options with both China and the USA.

• Research Reactors: Planned in Kenya and Nigeria.

3. Why China Has an Edge

• State-Led Execution: China’s state-owned enterprises enable rapid implementation and seamless decision-making.

• Financing & Infrastructure: Willing to finance nuclear infrastructure and provide supporting transmission systems.

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Nuclear cooperation complements the broader BRI infrastructure push in Africa.

• Post-Ukraine Advantage: China fills the vacuum created by Russia’s slowed involvement due to Western sanctions and resource constraints.

4. Geopolitical Shifts: Decline of Other Global Players

France:

• Traditional influence in Francophone Africa is waning.

• Losing out to China’s proactive financing and infrastructure package.

United States:

• Held the U.S.-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (2023).

• However, lacks a clear and coordinated nuclear energy strategy for Africa.

Russia:

• Signed MoUs with Egypt, Niger, and Mali.

• But faces economic and political constraints post-Ukraine conflict.

5. India’s Current Position and Challenges

Domestic Nuclear Goals:

• India targets 10 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, up from the current 6.8 GW.

India-Africa Nuclear Cooperation:

• 2009: Civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Namibia.

• Exploring uranium mining in Namibia and Niger.

• Participates in India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) but lacks a dedicated nuclear strategy.

Challenges:

• Limited export-ready nuclear technology.

• Absence of aggressive financing mechanisms.

• Need for long-term geopolitical commitment and technical partnerships.

6. Strategic Way Forward for India

1. Expand Nuclear Diplomacy:

• Sign more civil nuclear agreements with African nations.

• Offer technical and policy training through DAE, NPCIL, and Indian universities.

2. Promote Indigenous Technologies:

• Export models like PHWRs (Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors) and SMRs (Small Modular Reactors).

• Collaborate with African partners on research reactors.

3. Leverage Multilateral Platforms:

• Strengthen ties via IAFS, BRICS, and G20 Africa outreach.

• Push for nuclear cooperation under climate and energy security umbrellas.

4. Financial Innovation:

• Develop public-private nuclear financing models.

• Encourage Indian PSUs and private firms to invest in African clean energy projects.

5. Diplomatic Engagement:

• Appoint special nuclear envoys or task forces for Africa.

• Host India-Africa Nuclear Cooperation Dialogues annually.

7. Conclusion: Time to Act Strategically:

Africa’s transition toward nuclear energy presents both challenges and opportunities. China’s rapid expansion reflects strategic clarity, financial muscle, and long-term commitment. If India wants to remain a credible actor in Africa’s clean energy landscape, it must urgently scale up its diplomatic, technical, and economic outreach.

India’s success will depend not only on exporting reactors but also on building trust, training talent, and enabling sustainable development. As the world rewires itself around new energy realities, Africa could be India’s proving ground in the global nuclear race.